PUtin Signs Russia’s New Nuclear Doctrine As the US Crosses the Red line
19 November 2024 by Larry C. Johnson
Ukraine wasted no time wasting an estimated $7.2 million today by firing six ATACM missiles into Russia’s Bryansk Oblast. Russia claims it downed all of them with no significant damage to Russian assets. Let’s just call this a case of premature launch on the part of Ukraine’s Zelensky. From the Russian perspective, this was an act of war, albeit an ineffective one.
The attack takes on a different meaning in light of Putin’s announcement today of Russia’s updated nuclear doctrine. Here are the key points:
- A critical threat to the sovereignty of the Russian Federation even with non-nuclear weapons will be the basis for a nuclear response
- Russia reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in the event of aggression against Belarus.
- The Russian Federation may consider the issue of using nuclear weapons after reliable data on a massive launch of missiles and/or drones.
- Russia has expanded the category of states and military alliances against which nuclear deterrence is carried out.
- In the updated version of the document, aggression against Russia by any non-nuclear state, but with the participation or support of a nuclear state, is proposed to be considered as a joint attack on the Russian Federation.
- Russia is obliged to take into account the emergence of new sources of military threats and risks for itself and its allies.
I do not believe that Ukraine’s attack today constitutes a critical threat. However, it does represent the United States crossing a line as far as Russia is concerned and may lead to the targeting of US assets in Ukraine. Russia is certainly going to intensify its missile and bombing campaign inside Ukraine and will inflict more devastation.
If Ukraine continues to launch ATACMs into Russia and Russia continues to shoot them down, this will be a major black eye for the US defense industry — i.e., US weapons ineffective against Russian air defense. We will know within the next 24 hours what Russia’s response to the Bryansk attack will be.
The lies and bias that have infected the Western view of the conflict have prevented the people of the United States and Europe from appreciating the colossal defeat that Russia in inflicting on Ukraine and the NAATO alliance. The perceptions of casualties is just one example. Ukraine continues to insist that it has only lost fewer than 50,000 soldiers, but the Russia has suffered catastrophic losses. The truth is the opposite. Consider the following video, as well as before-and-after photos, of four Ukrainian cemeteries. The before is 2022. The after is 2024. Some of the graveyards have grown by a factor of four over the last two-and-one-half years. This is a horrific visual display of Ukraine’s enormous losses. Russia not only is attriting Ukrainian forces at the rate of over 2000 per day (killed and wounded), it is capturing major swaths of territory all along the line of contact.
Here is the video:
Russian losses are minuscule by comparison (data compiled by Mediazona). The following shows the KIA by oblast:
Given these facts, Russia has less incentive to negotiate a bi-lateral end to the war. They are in a position to demand an unconditional surrender. I think Donald Trump is in for a surprise if he thinks he can do a deal in 24 hours.